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First Republic LLC   PO Box 341628, Austin, TX 78734 ● ph: 512-266-5999 ● fax: 512-266-5998 ●  info@firstrepublicllc.com

 

 

Demographics & Bastrop Retail Market Analysis

Overview & Recommendations

(Published by Bastrop Economic Development Council, December 2005)

 

Objectives

• Demographic and business analysis.

• An analysis of current shopping centers and the square feet of GLA/per person to determine the saturation levels of shopping center space.

• Retail and service sales demand of trends by taxable sales receipts by SIC Code. These data will display the actual retail sales over time. FH&R will analyze trends and identify those types of stores that have experienced actual sales gains. The actual sales will also be evaluated relative to sales potential.

• A determination of the degree to which the market area may be under or over-served with particular types of tenants.

• Recommendations as to the type of retail and service tenants that should be solicited to locate or relocate to the new development.

The Bastrop Market Area

Previously in the Bastrop retail area, shoppers were surveyed and the data was mapped according to home ZIP codes (collected through the survey) to determine how far the area shoppers are driving to visit Bastrop. The analysis identified ZIP codes from which most customers are coming and therefore defined the core trade area for Bastrop retailers and service providers. 

Specifically, an intercept survey was conducted in three shopping center parking lots (HEB, Home Depot and Wal-Mart), Thursday-Sunday, July 17-20, 2003. A total of 300 shippers were surveyed, with 100 from each of the three retailers at varying day parts. Home ZIP code and frequency shopping visitation to Bastrop were collected from those shoppers. 

FH&R utilized the home ZIP code responses to define the trade area for the Retail Market Analysis. The trade area is defined as the following ZIP codes in the Bastrop area (accounts for 91% of shoppers).

 A trade area map can be found in Section 2 of this study. *(Contact us if you would like detailed information in Section 2.)

 Visitation frequency was also analyzed through the survey analysis. When asked how often customers visit Bastrop for shopping, the responses were as follows: 

• Overall, customers are visiting an average of six times per month.

  • 24% visit four times per month

  • 14% visit two times per month

  • 11% visit eight times per month

  • 10% visit once a month

  • 8% visit five times per month

  • 6% visit six times per month

  Demographic and Firmographic Analysis

  The following are highlights of the demographic and firmographic findings for the Bastrop trade area (reports detailing trade area demographics and firmographics may be found in Section 3): 

  Demographics

  • The population of the trade area is 150,008 and is estimated to grow 16.18% by 2009. The number of households is expected to grow at 16.34%. Currently, there are 50,805 households in the area. The population of the trade area is predominantly White and 73.61% of the total population in the area.

  • Approximately 77.97% of the population lives in owner-occupied units.

  • Of the total households, 21.92% have income levels between $50,000 and $74,999. The second largest category is households with income levels between $35,000 and $49,999, representing 16.55% of the total area households.

  • People between 35 and 44 years of age are the largest segment of the population, 15.68%.

  • 53.94% of the population is married, followed by single males, which represent 13.47% of the total population.

  • 33.39% of the population are high school graduates, while 21.00% have experienced some college. Another 10.92% have obtained a Bachelor’s degree.

  Firmographics

  • There are approximately 4,959 total businesses in the trade area, and the dominant group is services at 38.01%. Retail trade businesses are the second major category, representing 21.60% of the total businesses in the area.

  • The number of employees in the trade area is 47,740, and the majority work in services. Approximately 37.36% of the total employees work in services, while 18.41% of employees work in retail trade businesses.

  • Total annual retail sales for the trade area are approximately $1.2 billion. Retail sales include $353 million for Auto Dealers and Gas Stations, $203 million for Food Stores, $167 million for Home Improvement Stores, and $107 million for General Merchandise Stores.

   Detailed demographic and firmographic reports may be found in Section 3 of this study. *(Contact us if you would like detailed information in Section 3.)

   Retail and Service Sales Trends

  Retail trade in the Bastrop trade area is very healthy. Retail sales in 2004 totaled $1.3 billion, up from $753 million in 1995. The average annual sales increase in retail sales amounted to 7%. Sales in service establishments increased from $66 million in 1995 to $102 million in 2004. The average annual increase in service establishments increased by 5%.

  Retail Sales			Services
  1995	$752,802,927	Change		$66,230,128	Change
  1996	$822,559,743	9%		$75,136,739	13%
  1997	$980,683,365	19%		$66,098,490	-12%
  1998	$1,012,676,876	3%		$68,691,120	4%
  1999	$1,019,992,303	1%		$81,325,139	18%
  2000	$1,142,036,968	12%		$83,078,161	2%
  2001	$1,277,187,469	12%		$95,867,983	15%
  2002	$1,116,425,608	-13%		$104,441,589	9%
  2003	$1,208,169,052	8%		$99,089,712	-5%
  2004	1,286,575,553	6%		$102,089,317	3%

 

• Lumber & Building Material Store sales totaled $155 million in 2004, maintaining strong growth trends.

• General Merchandise Store sales totaled $147 million, but have remained relatively flat over the past three years.

• Food Store sales have reached $345 million and are increasing at a very good rate.

• The Automotive sector had sales of $322 million in 2004, but shows signs of moderating.

• Apparel Stores sales in 2004 were $15.2 million. This sector should see significant expansion in the foreseeable future.

• Home Furnishings are trending downward.

• Eating & Drinking Places sales were $108 million in 2004. Sales trends indicate this sector will continue to expand, particularly as strong regional and national chains move into the trade area.

• Miscellaneous Retail Store category, which includes a broad array of stores, had sales of $172 million in 2004 up 14% from 2003. This category will continue to see strong sales growth.

• The Services Sector is not expected to expand quite as rapidly as retail sales.

 A series of charts in Section 4 show sales trends by broad category (two-digit SIC) reflecting totals by Standard Industrial Classification. We also present data in more specific categories based upon sales within the four-digit SIC classifications. This data may also be found in Section 4. *(Contact us if you would like detailed information in Section 4.)

 The charts represented in this study reflect those categories that are expanding at healthy rates and those store groups that can expand their operations or see the introduction of new establishments. The following store categories can be expected to expand: 

• Building Materials

• Grocery Stores

• Women’s Clothing

• Women’s Accessories

• Family Clothing

• Shoe Stores

• Apparel

• Some Home Furnishing Operations

• Household Appliances

• Consumer Electronics

• Eating & Drinking

• Drug Stores

• Liquor Stores

• Book Stores

• Jewelry Stores

• Hobby & Game Stores

• Gift Stores

NOTE: The Bastrop trade area is severely under served in many retail and service categories, not only in terms of types of stores but in the quality of operations. If more stores of better quality were offered in the trade area, sales in all categories would be even stronger.

Shopping Center Analysis

On a national basis, there is 6.2 billion sq. ft. retail shopping center space, which is just over 20 sq. ft. per capita. The Bastrop trade area has a current ratio of 1.13 sq. ft. per capita. Even if we include the planned Pecan Crossing of approximately 400,000 sq. ft., the ratio would be only 3.8 sq. ft. per capita. 

Most of the Bastrop trade area population shops outside of the trade area. Their retail expenditures are being captured by shopping centers and retail outlets primarily Austin.

The trade area could now support an additional 2.75 million sq. ft. of retail space. The growth that is expected to take place over the next five years should justify an additional 500,000 sq. ft. of retail space. 

While it is typical that population growth is generally ahead of retail growth, it is unusual to see a market this under served with retail space.

Opportunity Analysis

To further analyze the retail and service climate of the Bastrop trade area. FH&R conducts an opportunity analysis. In this analysis, the trade area demographics and firmographics are scaled against the number of retail and service businesses by category. This process is also performed on a larger, selected geographic area chosen as a benchmark. The benchmark area chosen for this study is Travis County, which is a well-established retail market. The benchmark is calculated using the ratio of population per number of retail businesses and employees per number of retail businesses for Travis County. Finally, the ratio is divided into both the trade area can support. The difference between the actual number of retailers and the benchmark number in the trade area indicates over and under-supply. A negative number shows retail under-supply, while a positive number shows retail over-supply. Consequently, this analysis determines which type of retail is under-supplied and would therefore be welcomed in the trade area.

 The opportunity analysis and results may be found in Section 5 of this study. Additionally, a list of retail and service businesses maybe is found in Section 6. *(Contact us if you would like detailed information in Section 4.)